Pew/Internet released its third Future of the Internet study this past Sunday. Really the study is a benchmark survey of thought leaders in the business and reveals some very obvious brush strokes as well as a startling thought or two.
Some general thoughts on the report before diving into specific findings… It’s a highly subjective data set, relying on opinions of “internet leaders, activists and analysts.” I would have liked to have seen some stats on technology diffusion as well. It may have prevented some technologies like motion detection (a la Wii and other game platforms) from being excluded.
At the same time, reading some of the quotes offered by said Internet authorities was great. Some very insightful people participated, which does relieve some of my worries about the report’s legitimacy (that and they did poll 1,000 of them).
Lastly, it is a wide sweeping survey in scope, but not depth, leaving me wanting more. A mile wide and an inch deep, Future of the Internet III created room for future research. Here are three examples, all coupled with a choice quote from one of the survey participants:
Big Takeaway: Social Betterment Lacking
Humanitarian do-gooders using social media to create social good (Humanitarian Image by Kretyen)? Not here said 55 percent of the thought leaders. According to Pew/Internet, “The transparency of people and organizations will increase, but that will not necessarily yield more personal integrity, social tolerance, or forgiveness.”
This was the most disappointing benchmark revealed by the report. Yet recent events throughout the online world, from the mob mentality on Twitter to Arrington’s continued, ridiculously obnoxious self righteousness lead me to believe that significant progress in human nature needs to occur to achieve good online through transparency.
It’s the human plight, I suppose. Online media, while providing great opportunities to make a difference, is also exposing our ugly sides, from the need to place self first in some of the most ridiculous ways to pack mentalities to boorish treatment of others.
Here on the Buzz Bin, our own social good posts receive approximately 25- 33 percent of the readers our normal posts do, confirming this trend. That doesn’t stop us though. We’re committed!
As to the 55 percent of respondents who did not believe in the power of the Internet to change the world, well, we may have a long road, but if we don’t start somewhere we can never move forward. And now thanks to online transparency, we have a basis to begin that journey.
Our natural inclinations are to become more tolerant when we learn more about others. Especially, if the world grows more prosperous. Note also that most of our myths—movies and such—preach messages of tolerance and admiration of eccentricity. –David Brin, futurist and author.
Input Methods
After the shocking revelation that mobile would be the world’s primary access device, 67 percent of the thought leaders told us, “Voice recognition and touch user-interfaces with the internet will be more prevalent and accepted by 2020.” iPhone users I suppose.
But what about motion detection and other technologies crucial for virtual realities (Guitar Hero image by Joe Shlabotnik)? Facial recognition and other yet to be developed technologies can lead us to a new, new Internet that will really shake things up. Because keyboards and even touch input are still very physical and may limit our ability to interact in three dimensions. I see more progress here.
The use of the keyboard may disappear. –Julian Hopkins, social scientist and Ph.D. candidate at Monash University, Malaysia
The Third Dimension Goes Online
If corporate social media is one dimensional, then good social media is primarily two dimensional. Second Life seems to have petered out, leaving most of us wanting for a good virtual reality experience.
In my favorite finding, 56 percent of respondents felt, “In 2020, virtual worlds, mirror worlds, and augmented reality are popular network formats, thanks to the rapid evolution of natural, intuitive technology interfaces and personalized information overlays. To be fully connected, advanced organizations and individuals must have a presence in the ‘metaverse’ and/or the ‘geoWeb.’”
Ironically, while the “adults” duke it out on blogs, Twitter and Facebook, the rise of virtual reality is already occurring. It just doesn’t look like our reality.
World of Warcraft already boasts 11 million users! Yeah, it’s a game, but its a virtual, online experience. So are man of the other popular online games.
People always ask me what’s the next big thing. Today, beyond mobile and video, I tell them it’s virtual reality. As bandwidth increases, input devices evolve, and computing technology continues to accelerate, it’s only natural to expect better and better virtual experiences. Second Life blew their opportunity by not continuing to upgrade their clunky user experience. But their will be Third and Fourth lives.
It seems unclear to lump together augmented reality and mirror worlds. They can have very different contexts, uses, points of interaction, and expectations. The geoWeb will be a powerful force, and may increase the sense of physical place. The metaverse will have to deeply increase sensory experience, wayfinding, and orientation—so it may ride on the back of situated augmentation, but not necessarily be coupled with it. –Duane Degler, user-centered designer and strategist for Design for Context
What do you think of the future?
You had to show a screenshot of WOW huh? Everytime I see that game I feel myself being slowly pulled back into my former addiction.
On your last point…I definitely agree with you on the virtual reality aspect. People who have not played WOW have a hard time understanding that it’s much more than a game. There are economies (which affect the real world when you have Chinese sweatshops set up to farm gold to be sold to players), social structures and even diseases that scientists have used to study real-life outbreak patterns: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_of_warcraft#Corrupted_Blood_plague_incident
If WOW was just a game, I don’t think it would be as popular. It’s the whole experience that addicts people and draws them in…particularly the interaction with other humans aspect.
That line between virtual and reality is certainly blurring, and I think WOW has set the foundation for many more virtual worlds to come. Let’s just cross our fingers and hope we don’t wake up one morning wearing Tron outfits.