Livingston

Jun
23
2008

The Pendulum Swing?

foucaultspendulum.jpg

When a pendulum swings too far in one direction, force of gravity pulls it back in the opposite direction. This motion creates an equilibrium, a balance that eventually settles in the middle. It seems that social media continues to grow red hot, and blogs are a continuing focus of influentials for readers and marketers alike. But how much longer can this pendulum swing in one direction (image by Brandi666)?

It’s inevitable that the social media craze will subside with a refocus on integration and balanced use of tactics across diverse media. We’ve been blogging about this for more than a year, ever since our first run in with the Amandae.

Five Reasons to Duck

If the pendulum is swinging too far into the social media court right now, then gravity will pull marketing back to equilibrium. Here are the things that have caused me to take notice:

1) Too many communicators have the shiny object syndrome, yet don’t have domain expertise. That means we’re seeing a lot of bad social media this year. In turn, you can expect corresponding failures and a reaction against social media.

2) With the boom has come increased attention, and more more, we are seeing cocky bloggers who have taken their readership and power too seriously. Worse are the ones who are followed closely like a news source, but obviously shoot their mouths off without fact checking or really understanding their subject matter.

Great blogging always had its heart in passion and domain expertise. When neither are present — instead replaced with bad information and ego-ridden acts — people will eventually catch on and stop believing. For example, remember how big Steve Rubel used to be? Once a top Technorati 100 regular, he has dropped out of the top 1000 blogs.

adoringfans.jpg3) A decadent subculture: I’ve been on the speaking circuit, have attended the events, and seen the great comradery, and in some cases, decadence that has arisen. From people trying to “date” rock star, favorite female or male bloggers or putting them on pedestals to the blatant stalking by people like Brian Conolly/Amanda Chapel and the Kathy Sierra nightmare, we’ve given birth to a parasocial culture (more on this next week). How long until parasocial behavior begins hurting the social media culture with scandal and the like (image by alpineinc)?

4) Along the lines of three, with our subculture has arisen gossip and unprofessional fascination a la Valleywag. Vicious false attacks are the norm here. Smells like post-prime Rome to me. I mean we’re talking geeks here. Are we really this important? Please.

5) The AP content issue reminded me of the media titans who continue to watch their mindshare slip away. They will fight this change, and do anything they can to protect their revenue, including limiting access to information unless you are a paid member. It’s been a losing battle so far, but sooner or later professionally developed content will see an uptick in demand. Why? See reason one. If traditional media continues to protect their value and refuse to compromise, they will benefit.

Social media will not go away. Believe me, I am not calling for a collapse. In fact, I’ve staked this company’s future on the ongoing need for social PR. Yet perhaps an over reliance on bloggers as experts will pass, or a shake out of the fake social media consultants will come. Perhaps we’ll start respecting our professional media sources a little more.

The pendulum will swing back. A more measured, integrated and intelligent approach to conversational media will take place. When? There are a lot of factors in play starting with the economy. In addition, if Obama wins, you can anticipate widespread adoption of social media by the government. So don’t expect the pendulum to swing this summer or fall, but more likely in 2009.

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by Geoff Livingston | Blogging, Geoff, Internet Marketing, Social Networks |

16 Responses to “The Pendulum Swing?”

  • Valeria Maltoni Says:

    June 23rd, 2008 at 8:55 am

    Geoff, I consider myself lucky to be exploring how the tools that have risen in popularity with customers and employees may help facilitate the exchange of value. What I am observing in the marketplace is not unusual of any age. Opportunists and popularity are as old as the beginning of evolution (my theme this week). Those who are patient and are in it for the long run and the benefit of the publics they serve will be more resilient to the next wave. Admittedly, there is a bit of noise at the moment.

  • Debbie Weil Says:

    June 23rd, 2008 at 10:18 am

    Geoff, per usual you have wonderfully articulated something I’ve been thinking about. Your phrase “decadent subculture” is spot on. This is a real problem and one that threatens the growing credibility of social media as a viable communications strategy for mainstream companies. It behooves all of us in this space not only to ignore the dreck, but to continue to speak out against it.

  • Geoff Livingston Says:

    June 23rd, 2008 at 10:33 am

    Valeria: How true. And patience and an unwillingness to bend to the unhealthy is the way to survive.

    Debbie: Here, here. There is so much media attention around social media these days that it seems inevitable that some of this stuff will leak out.

  • Nancy Williams Says:

    June 23rd, 2008 at 10:39 am

    I do think your points are valid, particularly point 1. There has always been a ‘me too’ mentality on the internet - as soon as the majority realises that the early adopters are doing well, everyone tries jumping on the bandwagon. Unfortunately it can result in those bandwagon passengers lacking understanding, trying to be successful with the minimum effort possible, and therefore diluting the strength of the technology. However, one would hope that when this hysteria fades and the next shiny thing is grabbing the fickle attention of the crowd, then those people who believe in social media will still be around making sure it works.

    I don’t believe it will go away, but the deeper an understanding that people have as to its uses and benefits, the better it will become.

  • Lara Kretler Says:

    June 23rd, 2008 at 11:25 am

    I guess I don’t see social media as a pendulum that will eventually swing back in the other direction, but rather as a natural evolution of technology and communication. What we used to do by regular mail, then email, we now do via text message, Twitter, Facebook or a myriad of other new means of communication - the quicker and less intrusive, the better. The pendulum didn’t swing back on email (although I’m sure the USPS would have loved that), nor do I think it’ll happen on social media. I do agree with you that a less gungho, more strategic and measured approach would be a good thing though!

  • Geoff Livingston Says:

    June 23rd, 2008 at 11:43 am

    Lara: If the pendulum did not swing back on email, then why is it losing its effectiveness as an outreach mechanism? Consider how ineffective emailing press releases has become. Just a thought.

  • Joe Says:

    June 23rd, 2008 at 11:48 am

    Great post Geoff. Particulary I agree with the point, “sooner or later professionally developed content will see an uptick in demand.”

    Whether we acknoledge it or not, bloggers often depend on the news gathering operations of large organizations for content. However, we’ve seen some changes with things like the Fowler/Huffington Post story. Will that be an exception or the rule?

  • Lara Kretler Says:

    June 23rd, 2008 at 2:19 pm

    Hmmm, okay that’s an excellent point. What I’m seeing as evolution/moving on to the next thing really is the pendulum swinging back on itself. I guess I just don’t want to see it happen with social media so I’m in denial about it!

  • Geoff Livingston Says:

    June 23rd, 2008 at 2:55 pm

    Geoff: where does one get in on this blogger/speaker groupie action you mention? I must be doing the wrong conferences.

  • Lewis Green Says:

    June 23rd, 2008 at 4:51 pm

    Geoff,

    Wonderful post and well-written. Thanks! Since I know marketing and communications best, let me address that one area. The vast majority of businesses have not rushed to embrace social media because they are well aware of the effects you describe using pendulum as metaphor. They await the balance of which you speak. Because the smart and experienced executives, marketers and communicators understand that conversation, information and knowledge are not shared via any single medium but instead require the integration of media. Some social media tools will (and already are to some extent) become on of business’s communications/conversation tools to create customer experiences that cannot be duplicated through the use of many of the tools currently most in use.

  • Jen Zingsheim Says:

    June 23rd, 2008 at 4:52 pm

    Interesting post…one thought on emailing press releases. In my opinion, it isn’t the medium (emailing) that has lost effectiveness, it’s the releases themselves. There are too many, they are poorly written and badly executed, and worst of all, most times contain no news. Every PR pro should make it a goal to cut the number of releases they send in half, if not more.

    I agree with the prospect that we may be returning to a more balanced state of things. Everything–from overheated economies to overpriced housing markets–wants to reach an equilibrium.

    Jen

  • Liz Says:

    June 23rd, 2008 at 5:32 pm

    I’m an outsider, trying to make sense of the tech/media/marketing juggernaut that is social networking and you express so many of the thoughts that have arisen as I try to understand this self-important and insular little world.

    I worked in the music industry for eight years and it makes me laugh out loud every time I hear a blogger referred to as a “rockstar” and to his readers as “fans”…what hubris! The only quality I can see that musicians and some (the most read) bloggers have is a high degree of self-absorption. And they both travel excessively, musicians on tour and bloggers on an endless series of tech and marketing conferences. They both live in for half of the year in hotels. But that is where any similarity ends.

    This whole universe makes for a fascinating case study…before the pendulum swings in the other direction and people are too depressed or broke to want to talk about it all.

  • Tamera Kremer Says:

    June 24th, 2008 at 10:53 am

    Re: #3 this is nothing new. Go back to usenets, political blogs, etc. from years or a decade ago and you’ll see the same phenom. That’s part of what the appeal of the internet is to the masses. It’s a social behaviour that has been well documented in academic studies from before WYSIWYG… But that leads back to another one of your points re: understanding the history before…

  • Geoff Livingston Says:

    June 24th, 2008 at 5:24 pm

    Brian (a.ka.a. Geoff): We’ll talk.

    Lewis: You are the man. Real marketers don’t spend without true opportunity.

    Liz: That is the most appropo comment I’ve read in a long time.

    Tamera: This is highly public now, in a way that history has never seen.

  • Tamera Kremer Says:

    June 24th, 2008 at 7:01 pm

    Geoff,

    It’s been highly public for at least a decade on message boards and the early blogs — think DemocraticUnderground, FreeRepublic, DailyKos, sports message boards, Kuro5hin, Slashdot, etc. etc. Sockpuppets, flame wars, and the lot have been around for years, and in internet years it is history.

    Politicians have been paying attention for at least 5 years now and interacting. PR and marketing have pushed it further into the mainstream, but the archive is still there. These battles have all been fought before and if you were in the tech or political space it certainly could impact your reputation.

    My point is exactly that Amanda Chapel and such characters are not new to the *Internet* but are new to the *PR* portion of the online world.

  • Geoff Livingston Says:

    June 24th, 2008 at 10:57 pm

    Tamera: I think you are mistaken. But we can have differing point of views. It’s not that they are new, it’s that there’s an unprecedented level of obnoxious, decadent behavior.

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