Full disclosure: I performed consulting work for Verizon Wireless’s federal division this year.

Wednesday’s wireless announcement from Verizon Wireless spawned a huge discussion amongst social media-ites on how this stacks up with Google’s Android initiative. Today, Google’s decision to bid on a wireless WiMax license became public, so this discussion will really take off.  Cisco has already indicated sincere interest in a 700 MHZ, and there are rumblings that Apple wants one, too.

My takeaway is that Verizon Wireless is not going to willingly yield any space to new players. And please, folks, don’t think just Verizon when you think of this company. Also think of Vodafone, the world’s largest mobile phone company. They own 45 percent of Verizon Wireless.

And not to be forgotten is AT&T, which has a leg up with the iPhone right now. Sprint is deploying the world’s first WiMAX network in an effort to regain market share.

So why are Google and Cisco such hot wireless talk? Because it’s the web 2.0 crowd driving a lot of the hype.

Rarely do I blog about tech tools these days.  Why? Because its about communications between people, not the mechanisms.  Also, I’m a marketer, not a tech analyst, so I prefer not to dwell on areas that I can’t offer value.  Wireless is different.

Can Google and Cisco Really Compete?

As a former wireless reporter (I even co-authored a book on 3G), I doubt either of these newbies really understands wireless, and I have serious doubts about Android’s ability to pull it all together.  Google has made serious inroads into the virtual desktop, but not the OS marketplace… Yet. It looks like Android might be that OS… Might be.

Data throughput has always been the holy grail of wireless networks since the 80s. Both Motorola and IBM tried to create wireless data networks in the 90s and they got their butts kicked by the conventional telephony cos. Then there were the rise and fall of paging networks. And yeah, the rise and still not fully realized dream of 3G networks.

Even today, wireless data sonly comprises 15.5 percent of U.S. wireless revenue. That’s increasing significantly at 63.3 percent rate, says CTIA.  But it’s important to remember that wireless data has always been the Holy Grail of the Wireless carriers.

It’s hard to see how Cisco or Google will understand the dynamics of RF modeling, streaming wireless IP at high rates to hundreds of diverse devices, RPU or any of the many other factors that go into creating a successful wireless business. The over-exuberance from the web 2.0 crowd on this one makes no sense given past history.

There’s a great probability that some silicon valley humble pie is about to be dished out to Google and Cisco. Neither of these companies has a core competency in managing national or even regional wireless networks. The 700 MHz ventures are outside of their brand terrain. Of the two, if either will succeed it’s Cisco because they’re smart enough to team with an established wireless player.

The truth of the matter is no one knows what’s going to happen.  Let the market figure it out before everyone crowns Google the new wireless hero.